Saturday, November 7, 2009

Fascinated by uncertainty

I have always been fascinated by uncertainty.  Maybe because is part of my background, or maybe, as Dennis Lindley says (quote below), because uncertainty is everywhere.
You are uncertain, to varying degrees, about everything in the future; much of the past is hidden from you; and there is a lot of the present about which you do not have full information. Uncertainty is everywhere and you cannot escape from it.
I also suspect that uncertainty is to some degree responsible for my passion for the Earth Sciences, where lack of certainty is the norm. When you are not sure of the outcome, there is always the thrill of possibility, the excitement of anticipation, the prospect for the unconquered horizon.

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